PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – In recent statements, the Panama Canal indicated it might cut the number of ships passing daily to approximately 29 in February or March 2027 should drought conditions continue unabated, according to its newly appointed head. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and mentioned the possibility amid El Niño’s impact on reservoir levels. The canal’s operations depend on freshwater sourced from rainfall-fed lakes to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already begun implementing phased capacity reductions due to below-average rainfall in the watershed area.
Since Sept. 3, the canal has allocated nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34. From Sept. 15 onward, Panamax slots will decrease to 23, lowering the combined daily total to 32. These adjustments follow diminished rainfall during Panama’s rainy season and reduced inflows into the canal’s watershed. Officials are employing water conservation techniques and tighter booking procedures while closely watching Gatun Lake and other water sources.
Operational data shows that during fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits each day up to June 30. It handled 10,726 transits from October through June, marking a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year. These figures were recorded before recent rainfall deficits led to stricter operational limits. Connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the canal plays a vital role in global trade, facilitating shipments of containers, energy, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water shortages lead to tighter transit limits
Lock operations depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to raise and lower ships during crossings. Consequently, reservoir levels directly influence how many vessels can traverse the waterway during extended dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake reached notably low levels. Later, capacity recovered as rainfall improved and conservation efforts stabilized water supplies for canal functions and public use.
Adjustments have also been made to vessel draft limits within the canal’s water management measures. On Sept. 4, officials deferred a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains in effect following assessments of Gatun Lake levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits are crucial as they determine how deeply ships can sit in the water, impacting heavier cargo loads.
Changes in booking procedures amid capacity constraints
As available capacity shrinks, the canal also modified its booking and auction protocols. Now, daily auction slots categorize vessels by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When conditions are equal, full container ships with higher capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities have urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as limited capacity can extend wait times. Securing a confirmed reservation remains the only way to guarantee a transit date.
No additional reduction to 29 ships daily has been officially mandated. The administrator highlighted this figure as a potential limit for February or March should dry conditions persist. Ongoing monitoring of rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels continues to guide further operational decisions. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project to enhance long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure water availability for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.