ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for roughly 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measure considers the international extreme poverty threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. As a result, Pakistan became the largest contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four countries account for approximately 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP represents about 14% of the global extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one under the World Bank’s classification where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to rise.
In addition, Pakistan’s situation worsened at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached approximately 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, persistent inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty pressures intensify following consecutive shocks
Following a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026, recent household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, the World Bank reported that MENAAP remains one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economic growth has shown some recovery from recent lows, poverty indicators continue to remain high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26, with an expected increase to 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. The report estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% in 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification impacts headline poverty statistics
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current classification of the MENAAP region, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, regional statistics by the World Bank grouped both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government stated that this adjustment was purely administrative and statistical, and did not affect the country’s geographic or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to Pakistan’s finance minister, noted that the updated regional grouping altered poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also presented a more subdued economic outlook for the region in 2026. It projected a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP’s output after a 3.3% growth in 2025, citing conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade as primary factors. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain comparatively resilient, with the update forecasting a 4.3% growth for this subgroup in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to exert pressure on household purchasing power across several economies.